To get an idea though of how accurate Dent has been read on about his 2008 book, The Great Depression Ahead. You will find it intriguing and see that Dent is impressive in his prognostications. Some of his earlier books predicted the same thing for this period. I wrote this review in 2009 but it is just as good today – read on for some very good insight into where we are and where we are likely headed. As you read you will see that Dent is not always correct, or that his timing is a bit off, but the overall trends are remarkably well explained–
Title and Author: The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent, Jr. Date of Review: October 23, 2009
Synopsis of Content:
Using proven economic models based on well established economic cycles which are based on demographic cycles and changes Harry Dent, Jr. has done us all a great service here by showing how macro economic trends and changes can be understood and predicted like never before.
Anyone who sets out to predict the future is traveling a somewhat perilous road yet Dent in his fourth book predicting stocks and other financial markets appears to be coming as close to accurate predicting as can be imagined. His accuracy rate in the past 20 years has far exceeded the 80% rate that we rely upon from the US Weather Service.
In his seventh book Dent takes pains to explain again, after having done so in even more detail in his first three books, his methodology for determining these trends and cycles and applying them to both historical data and future projections. His historical record being demonstrably good it inspires one to take his predictions seriously.
Once you accept his methods and his premise the predictions are almost self evident. Chief among them are:
The U.S. economy will appear to recover in mid-2009 but it will prove to be the calm before the storm.
Stock prices will begin to crash again between mid and late 2009 and into late 2010. They will likely not bottom out until around mid 2012 – between a Dow of 3800 and 4500.
The economy will enter a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending into 2012 or 2013.
Asian markets may bottom by late 2010 along with health care, and both may be the first great buy opportunities for stocks.
Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid to late 2010.
The first major stock rally will likely occur between mid-2012 and mid-2017, and will be followed by a final set back through late 2019 or 2020.
The next broad based global bull market will start 2020-2023 and run into 2035-2036.
Any investment book must be reviewed with suitable skepticism. Predicting the future, even with Dent’s record, is not an exact science. No one should use this book as an exclusive source of investing advice. But the book is both provocative and informing and provides an excellent background to aid in educating oneself about where things are likely to go. Ignoring his predictions may well be sadly regretted.
Dent is a technical writer and takes great pains to document is methods and the data behind them. This is not a casual read or an easy one. To truly understand what he offers takes some effort. His ultimate predictions are easier to digest but without understanding at least the basic basis for his methods reading the final conclusions is not recommended. The book is very well organized with lots of tables and other compilations of data to illustrate his points. It has good chapter structure with lots of well organized sub-sections.
Notes on Author:
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the President of HS Dent Foundation whose mission is to help people understand change. He publishes a financial forecasting newsletter and a number of books on economic trends and forecasting. He has a Harvard MBA and has advised Fortune 100 companies as a consultant as well as being a new venture investor.
Other books by Dent include:
The Next Great Bubble Boom (2005-2009)
The Roaring 2000s Investor
The Roaring 2000s
The Great Boom Ahead
Dent’s primary website is at http://www.hsdent.com/
Three Great Ideas You Can Use:
1. The economy can be predicted with some accuracy based on proven models driven primarily by demographic data.
2. Using the predicted information investors and others can avoid costly errors and plan in ways to minimize losses and maximize returns.
3. It is possible to prosper in a down economy even when the best predictions are gloomy for several years in a row if you know where to go and where not to.
The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent, Jr.
©2008 by Harry S. Dent
Published by Free Press
Rating for this book:
OVER ALL RATING: Excellent
WRITING STYLE: Excellent
Wishing you success and prosperity,
Daniel R. Murphy
Helping People Learn to Build Wealth
Daniel R. Murphy
Daniel R. Murphy
Educating people for building wealth, adapting to a changing future and personal development.